Actually, the question about whether Google will create a Google Office is nearly moot—Google has been moving in the Office direction for at least a year and Google Docs & Spreadsheets is a major step in that direction. Google Docs & Spreadsheets is an integrated spreadsheet and word processor solution. Google also offers email, calendaring, and templated (PowerPoint-esque) Google Pages. Google has a few steps left to bring these services up to full horsepower, and then integrating them and managing users’ data is all (!) that’s left. Google could have an online office suite in a year.

Obstacles to Adoption of Online Office Applications

There are still a few hurdles left before online office applications steal me away from the desktop equivalents:

1. Availability:

   I don’t have universal access to the Internet yet. There are lots of places I go where I can’t get the Internet and wouldn’t have access to my office applications.

2. Performance:

   Ok, so assuming that I wouldn’t really need an office application in locations where I can’t get the Internet, there’s still the question of performance. Even with a high speed Internet connection, sometimes online office apps would choke when a normal office solution wouldn’t.

3. Security:

   The last problem I have is with security. How are my documents and information going to be safe? This is a truly fundamental question for Web 2.0 in general, not just Google Office. If my data is residing on a server somewhere, who is going to hack in and steal it? Tied to this issue is privacy. Is the government going to subpoena a company to give it to them without notifying me? Implementations of good government intentions aren’t always so good, laws aren’t always perfect, and I don’t always agree with the government. There are some cracks in the system that I am worried about.

Not If - When

I don’t think that there’s any question of whether or not there will be integrated online equivalents to Microsoft Office. Even if they won’t work as well as a desktop version, and even if they ultimately fail, there are a bunch of companies who are going to try it. They will even be able to overcome two out of three of the obstacles—availability and speed are technical obstacles which can be overcome, even relatively easily. And number three will be decided, one way or the other—by choice or by default.

(see more Google web services for more info on directions Google could take.)